Circana: US Console Hardware Market Is in Its Most Precarious Spot Since the '80s

The US console hardware market is in worse shape than it has been in decades. Mat Piscatella, senior director at market research firm Circana, warned that the market has not been this precarious "since the early 80s," as console prices keep climbing and unit sales keep falling.

What was reported

Circana's latest US retail tracking, covering 2026 year to date through August, shows steep declines for both of the big console makers:

• Xbox hardware units are down 33% compared with the same period last year, an all-time low for the platform according to Circana.
• PlayStation hardware units are down 25%, PlayStation's lowest point since 2013.

The driver is price. Circana says the average price US buyers paid for a new Xbox console this year is $529, 26% higher than a year ago, while the average PlayStation console sold for $597, up 20%. Both are all-time highs in the US. The increases are largely blamed on component shortages, with memory and other parts being soaked up by AI data centers.

"Price sensitivity is becoming a real problem," Piscatella said, adding that the "Big Video Game" arriving in November, a clear nod to Grand Theft Auto 6, might ease some of the declines. How much it helps will depend on whether retailers actually have consoles to sell, given the ongoing RAM and component crunch.

Key details

• Source of data: Circana US retail tracking, 2026 year to date through August
• Xbox: units down 33% year on year; average price paid $529 (+26%)
• PlayStation: units down 25% year on year; average price paid $597 (+20%)
• Cause cited: higher console prices, driven mostly by component shortages linked to AI data center demand
• Wildcard: GTA 6 in November, limited by console supply

Why supply matters too

This is not only a demand problem. Retailers have already warned that consoles are in shorter supply than usual, and that GTA 6 could cause stock to sell out over the holidays. Xbox has said in the past that demand for its console exceeds what it can produce. So the market is squeezed from both sides: fewer people are willing to pay record prices, and the people who are willing may not find a console on the shelf.

What it means for developers

For indie and mid-sized studios, falling console hardware sales change the math on platform choices:

• PC stays the safest first target. With console hardware sales falling, Steam and other PC storefronts remain the most reliable launch platforms for small teams.
• Scalability is worth the effort. Players are holding on to older hardware longer, and the same component crunch is hitting PC parts. Games that run well on modest specs and handhelds will reach more people.
• Plan console ports around the existing base. Tens of millions of PS5 and Xbox Series consoles are already in homes. Ports still make sense, but forecasts built on rapid new-console growth look risky right now.
• Watch the November window. GTA 6 will dominate attention and spending. Launching a small game right next to it is a tough sell, so it's a good time to check your release calendar.

Sources

• VGC

Cover image: © Sony Interactive Entertainment.